The Future of Shared mobilty
The prediction of $1 trillion in consumer spending by 2030 for shared mobility is based on research that analyzes the trends and data in the field. The growth of shared mobility services, such as ride-hailing and car-sharing, is expected to drive this increase in consumer spending.
Shared mobility is a growing industry with the potential to generate significant revenue in the future. In 2019, consumers took over 15 billion hailed mobility trips with revenues of $130 billion. The market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 200% and could reach between $450 billion to $860 billion by 2030. Consumers are willing to switch to shared autonomous vehicles, which could further increase revenue from robo-taxis and robo-shuttles to over $400 billion by 2030.
The shared mobility market is rapidly growing as consumers demand convenient, cost-effective, and sustainable modes of travel in urban areas. The number of e-hailing trips has tripled from 2016 to 2019, and over $100 billion has been invested into shared-mobility companies in the past decade. Cities are working to reduce private vehicle use and achieve emissions-cutting goals to address the climate crisis. The shared mobility market includes four key segments: hailed mobility, car sharing, shared micromobility, and urban aerial mobility. Projections for the shared-mobility market in 2030 include estimated global revenues and major trends for each segment. The future of shared mobility will depend on consumer adoption, regulatory support, and technological advancement.
Evolution of Shared Mobility up to 2030
Shared mobility aims to address the inefficiencies of traditional car ownership by utilizing underutilized vehicles and reducing the number of cars on the roads. This results in a more effective use of the mobility system and reduces traffic congestion. The shared-mobility market can be segmented based on whether rides are pooled with other passengers or strangers, whether the consumer drives themselves or is being driven, and the type of vehicle shared.
E-hailing refers to the use of online platforms to connect riders with drivers for individual or shared rides. This includes both licensed and unlicensed driver services and can also include future technology such as autonomous vehicles.
Shared micromobility refers to the shared use of lightweight electric vehicles such as scooters, bikes, and mopeds. The idea is to provide a convenient and eco-friendly alternative to traditional transportation methods. These vehicles can be rented through an app or website and are available for public use.
Car sharing refers to a service where consumers can reserve and use company-owned vehicles for a short period of time within a certain geographic area. It can be station-based or free-floating, and also includes peer-to-peer (P2P) car sharing where car owners rent out their personal vehicles to others.
Urban aerial mobility refers to the use of flying electric vehicles, such as drones or electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, for transportation purposes in urban areas. These vehicles can be either piloted by a human operator or flown semi-autonomously using artificial intelligence. They aim to provide a faster and more efficient mode of transportation for consumers in urban areas, reducing traffic congestion and improving accessibility.
According to McKinsey’s analysis, the global revenue for shared mobility was $130 billion to $140 billion in 2019, with the majority ($120 billion to $130 billion) coming from ride-hailing. McKinsey has developed a Mobility Market Model that projects the growth of the shared-mobility market based on data from over 2,800 cities, considering factors such as macroeconomic drivers, consumer attitudes, and regulations. The model predicts that spending on shared-mobility services could reach $500 billion to $1 trillion by 2030, which is a CAGR of 14 to 19 percent each year from 2019 to 2030.
Yes, ride-hailing and shared autonomous vehicles are expected to generate the highest revenue in the shared mobility market, followed by shared micromobility, car sharing, and urban air mobility (UAM). The growth and revenue potential of UAM will depend on various factors such as regulations, public acceptance, and technology advancement. Hence, there may be significant variations in the future revenue estimates for UAM.